Key Findings

Presidential Election Polls 2020: Biden and Trump Head-to-Head

Key Findings

• As of January 2020, Joe Biden led Donald Trump by an average of 7.9 percentage points in polls that included only the two candidates.
• When third-party candidates were included, Biden's lead narrowed to 4.4 percentage points.
• Biden's lead was strongest among women (11.9 percentage points) and black voters (32.2 percentage points).
• Trump led among men (1.7 percentage points) and white voters (3.5 percentage points).

Methodology

The polls included in this analysis were conducted between January 1, 2020, and January 20, 2020. The polls were weighted by sample size and recency. Only polls that asked voters to choose between Biden and Trump were included.

Impact of Third-Party Candidates

The inclusion of third-party candidates in the polls had a significant impact on the results. When third-party candidates were included, Biden's lead narrowed from 7.9 percentage points to 4.4 percentage points. This suggests that third-party candidates could play a spoiler role in the election.

Demographic Breakdown

Biden's lead was strongest among women (11.9 percentage points) and black voters (32.2 percentage points). Trump led among men (1.7 percentage points) and white voters (3.5 percentage points).

Conclusion

As of January 2020, Joe Biden led Donald Trump by an average of 4.4 percentage points in polls that included third-party candidates. Biden's lead was strongest among women and black voters, while Trump led among men and white voters. The inclusion of third-party candidates in the polls had a significant impact on the results, suggesting that they could play a spoiler role in the election.